The Basics of Climate Change Science (Q&A)

Here is an overview of some basic climate change science in a Q&A format.
The questions I came up with are:

1. What is the greenhouse effect, and isn't it natural?
2. How do warming temperatures effect the earth?
3. How does climate change relate to the hole in the ozone layer?
4. Aren't some areas getting colder?
5. Isn't climate change a hoax (created by scientists to get more grant money)?

Scroll through my answers and please let me know if there are other general questions I have missed that you want an answer to.

1.  What is the greenhouse effect, and isn't it natural?
The greenhouse effect is a natural phenomenon in our atmosphere. Carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases in our atmosphere form a type of blanket at the top of our atmosphere. The sun's rays enter the atmosphere and warm up the earth. CO2 is the predominant greenhouse gas. The natural CO2 in the atmosphere traps some of the heat in our atmosphere, and the excess heat is reflected back into space. This process keeps our atmosphere a comfortable temperature for life on earth.

Yes, the greenhouse effect is natural to an extent, without it life as we know it could not survive on earth. The problem is, humans have enhanced the natural greenhouse gas effect by adding extra CO2 into the atmosphere through the burning of fossil fuels--fuels like oil, coal, and gas that were locked underground for millenia. Humans burn fossil fuels for activities such as driving cars, heating and cooling homes and businesses, generating electricity, and other industrial processes. 

The graphic below shows the natural greenhouse gas effect compared to the human enhanced greenhouse effect. This human enhanced greenhouse effect is responsible for global warming and it is leading to climate change.
source: US Natural Park Service



Here's another more fun and animated way of explaining the greenhouse effect:



2.  How do warming temperatures effect the earth?

A.  Sea Level Rise
So far our oceans have actually absorbed much of the excess heat trapped by the extra CO2 added into the atmosphere by human activities. This has delayed the warming of our atmosphere, but it has still warmed. The warming of the oceans has caused sea level to rise (water expands when it is warm), making coastal areas at risk for flooding.

B.  Melting Polar Ice Caps
Warmer oceans and warmer air are melting of the polar ice caps (North Pole-Arctic, and the South Pole-Antarctica). The polar ice caps are great regulators of the global climate. Less ice at the poles means more heat is absorbed, instead of being reflected off the great white ice sheets back into space. When sheets of ice slide off land masses into the ocean this also contributes to sea level rise (like adding an ice cube to a cup of water makes the water rise)..

C.  Superstorms
Due to the warmer ocean and warmer masses of air there is more evaporation, and thus more water vapor in the atmosphere. Atmospheric humidity has increased by 4% in the last few decades. Storms, such as hurricanes, get their energy from warm ocean waters, which provide more power to storms. With more water vapor in the atmosphere these stronger storms are able to pick up more water vapor and then dump more precipitation on the area experiencing the storm. This is true of snow storms too, they pick up extra water vapor and then dump it as snow.

One analogy is: consider the atmosphere like a bathtub and the storm itself like the bathtub drain.  When you drain the bathtub you are draining water from the entire bathtub, not just the area directly over the drain. More water vapor in the atmosphere is like filling the tub even higher, so there is more water that can come out the drain.

D.  Floods
With more large precipitation events we are more prone to see flooding during these events because they overwhelm rivers, streams and stormwater systems. Some areas of the world are seeing larger snowstorms, but the wamer atmosphere is causing temperatures to warm up more quickly in the spring. Therefore, the snow melts faster and we get spring flooding events.

E.  Droughts and Fires
How can we get both wetter and drier? We are also seeing more large storms/rain/snow events, but fewer moderate or mild rain events. The increased heat in the atmosphere causes faster rates of evaporation. Water evaporates from soil even faster than it does from bodies of water so soils dry out fast. Without regular precipitation to replenish the soil things just get drier and drier. When forests and plains are drier they are more prone to wildfires that spread quickly throughout the entire area.

F. Threats to plants and wildlife
Our planet is like a "Goldilocks Planet" not too hot, and not too cold. Plants and animals on earth adapted to this very specific environment over thousands of years. Predictable temperatures and weather allowed life to thrive. Changes in these systems make it harder for species to thrive due to changes in habitat, new distribution of diseases or pests, and loss of food sources. Plants and animals are unable to adapt to rapid changes in temperature and environment as quickly as it is happening now due to man-made climate change.

3.  How does climate change relate to the hole in the ozone layer?
The hole in the ozone layer is what allows more of the sun's harmful UV rays to enter the atmosphere. UV ray exposure causes skin cancer in humans, and other species. Climate change is caused by greenhouse gases (the primary one being CO2) building up in the atmosphere and trapping heat.

The issue with the ozone layer is only somewhat related to climate change. The hole in the ozone was caused by chloroflorocarbons (CFCs) being released into the atmosphere. CFCs were used as refrigerants until the 1989 Montreal Protocol began successfully phasing out these gases. CFCs were replaced by new chemicals that do not bind with the natural ozone in the upper atmosphere (thus depleting it and creating a hole for more dangerous UV rays to get through). The link between CFCs and climate change is simply that CFCs are also considered a greenhouse gas (heat trapping gas). CO2 is still a bigger concern than any other man-made greenhouse gases because it alone comprises more than half of all man-made greenhouse gas emissions.

Update: just today I saw an article that the hole in the ozone may in fact be warming air around Antarctica due to shifting winds (http://m.nbcnews.com/science/hole-antarctic-ozone-layer-may-be-adding-global-warming-6C10885859)

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4. Aren't some areas getting colder?
Global warming doesn't mean that there are no more cold days or no more big snow storms. Some scientists are finding that Europe could get colder (at least temporarily) due to the slowing of the Gulf Stream in the Atlantic ocean. The Gulf Stream is driven by wind and carries warm ocean water from the equator to the British Isles, making Europe 5 to 10 degrees warmer than it would be without the Gulf Stream (source). Influxes of cold water from the melting Arctic can slow the Gulf Stream leading to colder temperatures in Europe. Also, some areas may get more snow in winter due to the superstorm effect described above. As scientists have learned more about the effects of manmade greenhouse gases in the atmosphere they have shifted to using the term "climate change," because it better describes the many effects it has. "Global weirding" is another term used since as the earth warms our weather patterns are shifting greatly.

The earth is a very dynamic system and scientists are learning more every day on how it works. Overall, the average global temperature is on the rise, and has been since the 1880s, just after the Industrial Revolution. Record-breaking cold temperatures are occurring far less often than record breaking heat events (source).

The above is a screen shot of an interactive map produced by NASA.


 5. Isn't climate change a hoax created by scientists to get more research grant money?
If this is what you believe I don't think there's anything I can tell you to change your mind. I will leave you with this from (source):

Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and scientists are more than 90% certain most of it is caused by increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases produced by human activities such as deforestation and burning fossil fuels.^[2][3][4][5] These findings are recognized by the national science academies of all the major industrialized countries.^[6]

Climate Leadership Training Day 3: Moms Weathering the Storm

The third and final day of Climate Reality's Climate Leadership Training the sessions focused on how to reach out to our communities about climate change. It is the most critical issue of our time. Without the predictable, hospitable climate that humanity has enjoyed for about 10,000 years, our society cannot exist. Climate change is also unique because it requires global cooperation. To some this is an overwhelming and frightening thought. Despite this, Al Gore, and other climate leaders see it as an opportunity. As a way to cooperate and shape a new, better future. My husband is watching Star Trek Deep Space 9 reruns on Netflix as I type this, and it occurred to me that if we can solve the climate crisis as a species, the world depicted in Star Trek doesn't seem quite so far off. Maybe we can finally work together as humanoids and catapult ourselves into a higher existence. But I digress.

Back to reaching out to our communities.... There were breakout sessions on the final day of the training. The session I attended was called Moms Weathering the Storm. Three panelists spoke about how they, as mothers have amplified their voices for a cause by reaching out to other mothers, and to other women.

One panelist was Harriet Shugarman who attended a Climate Leadership Training in 2007 and found her passion: climate change education, awareness and action. Like me, becoming a mother made her feel like she had to do something to make the world a better place. Her answer was starting the blog Climate Mama. Turns out she was not the only one, there is also a blog called Climate Mom, founded by Mary DeMocker, a mom who went "from worrier to warrior." Rather than being upset that these woman beat me to great blog names, I am so happy that there are other moms who are concerned about the same issue as me. Strength in numbers!

A second panelist was Emily McKhann, founder of The Motherhood, an online community of mothers wanting to make a difference. Emily shared her recent post called 9 Ways to Use Social Media to Support Your Causes and Charities. You can read her blog yourself, but it was inspiring to know that mothers can, and are already, using social media to amplify their voices for positive change.

A third panelist was Vanessa Lopes-Janik, a representative from the World Bank's Energy Sector Management Assistance Program (ESMAP). The particular story she shared is of their work with AFREA that seeks to include women in energy projects. The program helped women in sub-Saharan African countries access and use efficient cooking stoves that reduced the amount of fuel required to cook a meal. It also taught women how to turn dead branches into charcoal, which burns more efficiently than wood. In turn, women saved time cooking, and saved money because they didn't have to buy as much fuel for their fires. That extra money is being reallocated to buy more food to feed their families, and medicine when their families get sick. Women were also included in energy businesses such as turning dead tree branches into coal that they could sell. Thus reducing deforestation, reducing energy use, and providing income to families. Triple win.

One final story that wasn't part of the breakout session, but is worth telling, is the story of Kim Wasserman.  She is sometimes called "the new Erin Brockovich" because as a young mother she fought for both the environment and social justice in Little Village-- a predominantly Latino neighborhood on Chicago's Southwest side in the shadow of two of the dirtiest coal-fired power plants. She went door to door asking people about their neighborhood and realized that they were suffering from asthma but didn't know why. After 15 years of listening, researching, and community organizing she and her organization Little Village Environmental Justice Organization (LVEJO) got the coal-fired power plants shut down--a victory for the residents of Little Village, not to mention a victory for the fight against climate change.

The overarching point of this post is to emphasize that mothers have a long history of rallying around important causes and getting things done. One of the most famous modern examples is probably Mothers Against Drunk Driving, and one of my personal favorites is Moms Clean Air Force, but there are countless others. We, as mothers, have a unique role in society: raising the next generation. We can connect to other mothers because we see the future in our children, and know we have to fight for a better future on their behalf. Mothers (and fathers and grandparents!) can rally around climate change too. We are just one subset of the population fighting for climate justice whether directly through climate education and action, or indirectly by shutting down power plants that blight the community, or bringing better fuel and fuel efficiency and economic opportunity to mothers in Sub-Saharan Africa. Climate change is an issue that touches every facet of life. There are many small, sometimes seemingly unconnected, actions happening everywhere that help get us closer to the goal. We need to reach out to each other, celebrate our wins, and keep on working. This blog is my humble way to try and start doing just that.

Climate Leadership Training, Day 2: All Al Gore, All Day Long (on the science)

The first day of Climate Leadership Training focused on storytelling and sharing a personal connection to the threat of climate change.

The second day of Climate Leadership Training focused on climate science. Former Vice President Al Gore took the stage, and opened by giving the latest version of his slideshow made famous in the 2006 film An Inconvenient Truth. He is very clearly a man who has been studying climate change for decades. He spoke eloquently and with passion about the complex science, and explained the impacts of carbon (dioxide) pollution in the atmosphere--how it manifests as melting ice caps, increased floods, droughts, fires and superstorms. He was joined by two leading scientists Dr. Michael MacCracken, Chief Scientist for Climate Change Programs at the Climate Institute, and Dr. Henry Pollack, Emeritus Professor of Geophysics at the University of Michigan, and constantly asked them to weigh in on any statements he made and to elaborate when necessary. 

  Al Gore at the podium, July 31, 2013                                            


Al Gore with Drs. MacCracken and Pollack
 
 
It was interesting to me that climate science has stayed by and large the same since I first took a college course on it in 2000. It has only gotten richer, more in-depth, better understood, and some of the predictions made by complex computer models have actually come true already, such as the flooding of Manhattan. In 2012 superstorm Sandy caused widespread devastation in New York City and New Jersey.

As the day went on AG (as he known around The Climate Reality Project) broke down the slideshow into parts and spoke in more detail about the slides. He also took questions from the audience, and further discussed topics with input from Dr. Pollack and Dr. MacCracken. It was like taking a college course with a very lively and passionate professor--or really a panel of professors. He spoke from 8am-6pm, with just a few breaks.

I debated if I should go into the science in this blog post, but I feel it is more important to first focus on the fact that climate science is not up for debate.  97-98% of the 10,000 climate scientists around the world have concluded that climate change is real and is caused by human activity. Even the American Association of Petroleum Geologists does not dispute "the basic findings of human influence on recent climate change.” Therefore, "no remaining scientific body of national or international standing is known to reject [the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's consensus], (source).

 
97 out of 100 climate experts think humans are causing global climate change. 
Data from Doran et al, (2009) and Anderegg et al (2010). Graphic from Skeptical Science.

An apt analogy that was offered at CLT is this: Suppose you are having chest pains. You surround yourself with 100 of the best cardiologists and ask them what to do. After examining you, 97 or 98 of them say "I think you are having a heart attack. You need to take immediate action to protect your health including diet and lifestyle changes, medication perhaps, and possibly even surgery." However, 2 or 3 of them say "You're probably fine. Don't worry about it." What would you do? Who would you listen to?

Unfortunately, oil, gas and coal companies have waged an expensive, and successful, public misinformation campaign to discredit climate scientists and cast doubts on their findings. For example, in 1992 a coalition of coal and utility companies created the Information Council on the Environment (ICE) and began a campaign to "reposition global warming as theory rather than fact," (source). Exxon Mobil and the notorious Koch Brothers (source), and even Google whose motto is "Do no evil" have also funded climate climate deniers, (source). The media has also been an accomplice in this misinformation campaign by 1) under-reporting it in general, and 2) by referring to the issue as "so-called climate change" and portraying the opinion of the tiny percentage of deniers as equally valid to the overwhelming majority of scientists who conclude that humans are the drivers of modern climate change.

Climate change is real. It's man-made. I, and everyone else who acknowledges the science, wish we were wrong about this. We are already seeing its effects.The choice we have is to act quickly to limit just how bad it will get. It's not too late, but it will be difficult. I'm sorry. Let's get fired up and do something, fast. Silence is no longer an option

Climate Leadership Training Day 1: Storytelling

I just returned from the Climate Leadership Training hosted by The Climate Reality Project in Chicago. It was, in short, an amazing experience. There were over 1,400 participants that came from all 50 states and over 70 countries around the globe. During the two and a half day training, we sat in a large ballroom at McCormick Place around 144 tables. The tables were organized by geographical region. I sat with two fellow Vermonters and a recent graduate from Massachusetts. The others were from New Hampshire and included two high school science teachers, a mother and teenage son duo, and a young brother and sister pair (ages 12 and 15) accompanied by their aunt.

The first day of the conference focused on storytelling and how to engage in conversations about climate change with people who are in varying degrees of understanding or acceptance about the science and the climate crisis in general. We were urged to find our own story that we could relate to others to make concerns about climate change resonate from a more personal space. This is not about political parties or ideologies. It is about real people who are already seeing the impacts of climate change on their lives now through superstorms, droughts, fires and floods.

My story is one that I already shared briefly in my very first blog post. I first learned about climate change when I took a college course on it in 2000. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) had just come out with their report with the strongest verbiage to date linking human activities and climate change. It was an eye-opening course and led me to do an independent greenhouse gas emissions inventory of my college campus during my senior year. By 2003, I remember having conversations about climate change with my very concerned sister. At the time I was working on sustainability issues at the UVM Environmental Council and felt generally optimistic that the world see the light and fix things in time. How could they not? The science was there and it was strong. I was a newly minted graduate working on the issues for my job, surely people were getting the message. Life went on, I went to graduate school for urban planning and got immersed in the planning world and all but forgot about greenhouse gases and their global warming potential.

I thought about climate change less and less until 2010 when my son was born. We moved to our new house when he was 6 months old and worries about climate change started keeping me up at night. What kind of world had I brought him into? What kind of future did he have? Would his world resemble the one I grew up in or the one his grandparents knew? Eventually my fears faded a bit again, perhaps out of sheer exhaustion. But in 2012 when my daughter was born the same thing happened. I laid awake each night for several months worrying about climate change, global warming and positive feedback loops such as methane releases from melting permafrost as the Arctic ice reached record lows faster than expected. Globally, weather has gotten weirder and weirder. Here in Vermont we had record spring flooding in 2011. Later that summer we were hit hard by Hurricane Irene. 2012 was incredibly dry with a very mild winter, then this summer we had record rains and flooding again. Last November my son played in our sandbox, surrounded by green grass with beetles roaming around, and a red rose blooming nearby. This was not normal for November in Vermont. Anyone could see that and connect the dots. Couldn't they?

Then I got an email from The Climate Reality Project inviting me to become a Climate Leader. For the first time I felt like there was something I could do other than sign endless petitions and anxiously watch political leaders repeatedly fail on the issue. My story to reach out to the world about climate change centers on my kids. I need to know that I am actively working to protect them and their future from man-made climate change. (And yes, it IS man-made.) I know this is a common thread that many Climate Leaders attending the training shared. There were so many parents and grandparents there who are concerned about their own children and grandchildren's futures, not to mention many youth ages 22 or younger who were there for the sake of their own futures.

What's your story?